Risks and Opportunities

RHDHV also recognizes that the pilot scoping entails various opportunities and risks as enumerated in the table below. Among the opportunities including the sources of funds for external funding and data sharing. This is apparent with the possible financing and collaboration with various partners (i.e., national, provincial and district governments, as well as the private sector [e.g., San Miguel Corporation]).

Risks and opportunities

Category	Risk or Opportunity	Name	Risk/Opportunity	Consequence	Mitigation
	Opportunity	External funding	External funding sources from parties working on climate resilience might be available.	There might be reduction in costs for the pilot projects.	City local government of Malolos shall need to consider whether external funding is available and/or possible.
	Opportunity	Data sharing	Data from other parties might be available, and sharing of such data can reduce the costs for site investigations.	There might be reduction in costs for the pilot projects.	In the succeeding phase, formal requests for available information shall be undertaken as soon as possible.
	Opportunity	Livelihood impact	The implementation of pilot projects can provide additional livelihood opportunities to local stakeholders.	As a result of the implementation of pilot projects, increased incomes in certain households are seen to take place.	In the succeeding phase, it may be helpful if locals are considered in the livelihood opportunities related to the pilot projects.
	Opportunity	Re-useable dredged material	The materials from dredging projects are available for re-use.	There will be significant reduction in costs for the pilot projects using dredged materials.	Information on the availability of dredged materials from projects (e.g., DPWH-implemented and private-initiated projects) need to be ascertained.
	Opportunity	Enhanced Breakwaters	The enhanced breakwaters might be a good pilot project for private stakeholders (e.g., Holcim) that look for testing such intervention.	There might be significant reduction in costs for the pilot projects.	During detailed engineering design phase, contact suppliers if they are willing to collaborate on the pilot projects.
	Risk	Interface projects	The interface projects might overlap or seen incompatible with the pilot projects due to unknown designs.	Pilot project scopes might need to be adjusted.	Coordination with other agencies and parties during detailed engineering design is warranted.
	Risk	Maintenance of pilot projects	There might be a lack of manpower available for maintenance of the completed pilot projects.	There will be the absence of proof on the practicability and success of the pilot projects.	City local government of Malolos shall need to provide for allocation for manpower ensuring the maintenance of the pilot projects. Detailed engineering design shall provide for maintenance manuals.
	Risk	Public transportation and accessibility of water uses	The pilot projects are seen to decrease the use of public transportation (e.g., boat trips) and the accessibility of water uses, especially related to fishing.	There might be objection against the implementation of the projects by local stakeholders, especially residents and fisherfolk.	The detailed design shall consider the public transportation and accessibility of water uses for local stakeholders.
	Risk	Baseline input data for modelling studies	The numerical modelling studies will rely on available data, thus baseline input data may be limited.	The level of detail for the design maybe insufficient or with lower levels of confidence.	The gathering of data using surveys (e.g., bathymetry) should be provided with budget allocation.
	Risk	Mangrove specie planting	Mangrove specie planting is crucial to the rehabilitation efforts and related interventions (e.g., sediment trapping units [STUs]) in the pilot locations.	There is an Impact on the effectiveness of mangrove development.	During the detailed engineering design, the understanding of the current built up of mangrove species and research on the appropriate mangrove species will be undertaken.
	Risk	Water Quality	Water quality in manila bay may be in poor condition	Existing water quality may be unsuitable for recultivation of oyster reefs and coral reefs in the proposed breakwaters	In the succeeding phase of the project, water quality tests and/or improvements may be necessary prior to implementation of enhanced breakwaters
	Risk	Project footprint	The footprint of the pilot projects might overlap with existing land use.	Pilot project scopes might need to be adjusted.	During the finalization of the detailed engineering design, there is a need to ensure land use/zoning plans are considered to avoid non-compatible land uses. Also, backup locations need to be identified.
	Risk	Budget allocation	The implementation of pilot projects may lack budget allocations.	Pilot project scopes might need to be adjusted or may be delayed.	City local government of Malolos shall review project quantification and detailed engineering design to provide final budget estimates that need fund allocation.
	Risk	Woodworms	Woodworms can cause quicker degradation of (brush)wood.	Quicker degradation of the STU edges may exist.	In the succeeding phase, research on the use of other engineering materials for critical components (e.g., outer poles) shall be warranted.
	Risk	Change in barangay LGU management	Barangay elections shall take place in 2023, while national and local elections are scheduled in May 2025. These may cause changes in management/leadership at the local levels.	Impact on the commitment and prioritization on the implementation of pilot projects may be affected.	City local government of Malolos shall initiate the implementation of applicable issuance/s (e.g., executive order, ordinance) to ensure sustainability in implementing the pilot projects.
	Risk	Soil improvement	Site investigations can show that the soil conditions will complicate the design of the green embankments.	There might be additional costs for settlement of material, and longer waiting/construction time for completing the green embankment.	Detailed engineering design shall need to incorporate soil improvement details.
	Risk	Breakwater impact on sedimentation	The proposed breakwaters may block onshore sediment transport and be counterproductive if combined with the sediment trapping units	International lessons learned reveal that breakwaters reduce sedimentation rates and do not completely stop erosion, leading to unsuccessful mudflat and mangrove rehabilitation.	Detailed engineering design needs to consider site-specific hydrodynamic processes to identify optimal placements of the breakwaters and mitigate adverse effects.
	Risk	Resettlement of affected households	The implementation of the pilot projects may affect households, especially if relocation is deemed necessary.	Any relocation/ resettlement can impact the project timeline and public sentiment especially if relocation measures are still lacking.	In the succeeding phase, it is deemed necessary to first look into locations without needed resettlement. If on the contrary, only have interventions in locations with existing resettlement plans.