Population expansion

As shown in the figure below, the historic coastline of the North Manila Bay Delta lies north of several of the current population centres. It is estimated that 300,000 people live outside the historic coastline. Over the past decades, this expansion has been fuelled by rice paddies and fishpond expansions. It is one of the leading root causes of the flood risk in these areas; people have settled on historic wetlands/intertidal zones, which are supposed to be flooded. The recent subsidence and sea-level rise have magnified this problem.

By 2045, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) projects that the country will have a total population of 142.10 million. These population projections are percentage-wise and also applicable for Region 3. In the census of 2020, Region 3 had a total population of about 12.5 million people.

Historic coastline [18] (red) Coastal line of Defence (blue)

Left: Total Population projection of Philippines [2], and Right: Region 3

The Manila Bay Sustainable Development Masterplan [1] [2] created population growth models showing that the population north of Metro Manila will increase for the coming decades (figure below).