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Opportunities and Risks
During the creation of the North Manila Bay Flood Protection Strategy, an opportunity and risk log was maintained. The following tables describe the primary opportunities and risks identified.
Interfaces
The Manila Bay Sustainable Development Masterplan (MBSDMP) [1] is an inclusive master plan for the sustainable development of Manila Bay.
Root cause analysis
This root cause analysis sets out the current physical, environmental and institutional characteristics that contribute to the flood-related issues in the North Manila Bay Delta.
North Manila Bay Delta characteristics
The study area of this flood protection strategy, the North Manila Bay Delta, consists of the downstream part of the rivers of the Pampanga River Basin, including the coastal area.
Population expansion
As shown in the figure below, the historic coastline of the North Manila Bay Delta lies north of several of the current population centres. It is estimated that 300,000 people live outside the historic coastline.
Decline of natural habitat
Wetlands and intertidal flats are valuable habitats and essential for coastal protection as well as livelihoods.
Storm surges
The layout of Manila Bay makes North Manila Bay Delta vulnerable to flooding due to storm surges during southwest wind directions [22] [23]. Studies on hindcast data show that water level elevations (storm surges) [22] could reach 2 meters MSL.
Erosion and sediment shortage
As discussed in Section 3.3, mangroves have largely disappeared and replaced man-made fishponds, pushing the original coastline into Manila Bay.
Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created to provide a regular scientific assessment of climate change.
Fluvial Flooding
A fluvial or river flooding occurs when the water level overflows onto the surrounding banks and neighbouring land.